Fifteen Seconds for Sleuthing

From a Wydaho online game earlier this year...

East Deals None Vul	♠ K J 8 6 ♥ K 9 5 3 2 ♦ 7 4 ♣ 9 8
♠ Q 5 3 2 ♥ A Q J 8 7 ♦ K 3 ♣ Q J	N W E S

WEST	North	East	South
		Pass	Pass
1 ♥	Pass	2 ♦	3 ♣
All pass

You opened 1 ♥ in third seat. Partner's 2 ♦ bid was natural and nonforcing (as a passed hand). 

You led the ♦ K, partner played the encouraging ♦ 9 and declarer played the ♦ 5. You decided to play the ♥ A at trick two, building a fence for partner so she will return a diamond for you to ruff after you lead your remaining diamond at trick three. We're sure that partner does not have three hearts; declarer won't ruff the ace.

What else can we figure out on this hand? 

• Who has the ♦ A? Partner's 2 ♦ bid promised at least a decent five-card suit, and a decent hand considering that she passed as dealer. Your king held the first trick, and partner played the ♦ 9, an encouraging card. Partner must have the ace. 
• How many diamonds does partner have? She needs at least five for her two-level bid. With a six card suit, she might well have opened a weak two diamonds. So assume that partner has five diamonds.
• How strong is partner's hand? Her hand wasn't good enough to open; neither was declarer's. She could have passed, or bid 1 NT instead of introducing a suit at the two-level. You can see 22 high card points between your hand and dummy. It seems as if the remaining 18 HCP must be about even between partner and dummy. So, give partner -- and declarer -- roughly nine high card points.
• How many clubs does declarer have? Declarer wandered into the auction at the three-level with about nine points. If declarer had seven clubs, he might well have opened 3 ♣. Is declarer crazy enough to enter a live auction at the three-level with only a five-card suit and a nine-count? Probably not. So, declarer likely has exactly six clubs. And therefore partner has three clubs.
• Which club honors does declarer have? You have the queen and jack. Would declarer enter the auction at the three level with only nine points and a six-card club suit headed by ace-ten or king-ten? Seems unlikely, so give declarer ace-king-sixth of clubs.
• Who has the ♠ A? If declarer has it, he would have AK-sixth of clubs and the ♠ A. Surely that's an opening bid nowadays. So, give partner the ♠ A.
• How many spades does partner have?  If she had five, surely she would have bid them. With ace-fourth of spades... hard to say, she might have chosen to bid diamonds instead, showing a five-card suit and suggesting more-than-minimum values.  She has five diamonds, three clubs, and at most two hearts, so partner has at least three spades, and possibly four.  That means partner has at least one heart, possibly two. And the same for declarer.
• Who has the queen and jack of diamonds? If partner has both, would she have opened 1 ♦ with AQJxx and the ace of spades? Maybe, maybe not. But that would give declarer AK-sixth of clubs and nothing else for his passed-hand 3 ♣ overcall. If declarer has both diamond honors, would partner have bid 2 ♦ (instead of 1 NT) with ace-empty-fifth of diamonds and the ace of spades? Probably not. So it seems most likely the diamond queen and jack are split.
• Who has the ten of diamonds? Partner signaled with the nine. If she had the ten and the nine, she would have played the ten, signaling from the top of a sequence. Thus her play of the nine denied holding the ten. Declarer has the ten of diamonds.
• How many hearts does declarer have? We know he has at least one, because partner denied having three hearts. Partner has at least one heart, because otherwise she would have five spades and didn't bid them. And would declarer bid 3 ♣ holding two small hearts? That seems a bit unlikely; declarer is somewhat more likely to have the singleton heart.

THE PRINCIPLE: At trick one, all players are entitled to about fifteen seconds -- all players at the same time -- to think through the entire hand. Use that time effectively! And then play the rest of the hand in tempo.

That was a lot to sort out in fifteen seconds, but with practice you can do this. Not every hand will be as clear as this one. And there is definitely some guesswork and assumptions involved. But look how much easier this game is when you can work out all four hands!

	♠ K J 8 6 ♥ K 9 5 3 2 ♦ 7 4 ♣ 9 8
♠ Q 5 3 2 ♥ A Q J 8 7 ♦ K 3 ♣ Q J	N W E S	♠ A x x ? ♥ x ? ♦ A H 9 x x ♣ x x x
	♠ x ?  ♥ x ? ♦ H 10 5 x ♣ A K x x x x

x = a known spot card

H = a known honor card

? = a card that may or may not be present

On the actual hand, declarer did indeed have a singleton heart, and declarer's diamond honor was the queen.
Extra Credit: You can make a reasonable argument that declarer was a favorite to have the ♦ Q. Why?

-- Ray

Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Building A Fence

From a Wydaho online game earlier this year...

East Deals None Vul	♠ K J 8 6 ♥ K 9 5 3 2 ♦ 7 4 ♣ 9 8
♠ Q 5 3 2 ♥ A Q J 8 7 ♦ K 3 ♣ Q J	N W E S

WEST	North	East	South
		Pass	Pass
1 ♥	Pass	2 ♦	3 ♣
All pass

You opened 1 ♥ in third seat. Partner's 2 ♦ bid was natural and nonforcing, 1NT would have also been nonforcing per your partnership agreements.

You led the ♦ K, partner played the encouraging ♦ 9. Declarer played the ♦ 5; note that declarer might be concealing a lower diamond. 

What is your plan? What do you lead to the second trick?

It looks like we can beat this contract!  Partner clearly has the ♦ A and can give you a diamond ruff.  That's two diamond tricks, a diamond ruff, your ♥ A... and partner surely must have the ♠ A for her two-level bid. Down one; and if you can get another diamond ruff, or if partner can ruff a heart, even better yet.

What could go wrong? Partner knows you have at most two diamonds; with king-third you would have led low rather than the king. After you lead your remaining diamond to her, she might be concerned that you can't ruff higher than dummy on the third (and fourth) rounds of diamonds. Instead of giving you a diamond ruff, she might lead back a heart, especially if she has only one heart. 

Your lead to trick two?

ANSWER: Cash the heart ace right now, before continuing diamonds. That way, dummy's king will be an obvious deterrent to partner returning a heart. This is known as "building a fence" for partner, keeping her away from an undesirable action. You will have made it clear that you don't want a heart return, and thus you must really intend to ruff diamonds with a trump card higher than dummy's.

THE PRINCIPLE: When partner will have a choice of actions, and one choice would be disastrous, look for ways to remove that choice as a possibility.

There is another advantage to cashing the ♥ A right now: If partner is void in hearts, you'll know right away and will have her ruff out dummy's king later.

What if declarer ruffs the heart ace? Don't worry, that's not going to happen. You have five hearts, dummy has five hearts. If partner had the remaining three hearts, yes, declarer would be void. But that would mean partner didn't raise hearts with three-card support. Partner would not do that to you!

Bonus Minute: This is a cool deal! After seeing dummy and the play to the first trick, you can reasonably determine the exact distribution and honor holdings in the other two hands. I'll cover that in a future post. Try it for yourself now...

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

First, Do No Harm

 Continuing with our hand from a recent Wydaho online pairs game:

♠ A 8 4
♥ J 10 8
♦ Q 10 8
♣ A Q 9 7

You are on lead against 1 NT; declarer opened 1 NT (15-17) after partner passed.

THE PRINCIPLE: Think of notrump contracts as a race: Can the defenders set up and cash their winning tricks before declarer crosses the finish line? 

We saw that a fourth-best club lead from this hand -- underleading the ace-queen -- has about a 70% chance of blowing a trick, giving declarer a trick she cannot get on her own. (To be precise, 71.2%, considering declarer could have 16 or 17 points.) Let's not give declarer a one-trick headstart 😝

We usually want a lead that will help establish our winning tricks, without giving away too much in the process. Against a notrump contract, finding and establishing five-card (or longer) suits is usually the winning strategy. If you don't have a five-card suit that looks worthwhile, maybe partner does; your two- and three-card holdings might be where partner has some length.

Where might partner have a long suit?  Note that if partner has a six-card (or longer) suit, she might well have opened a weak two or a higher preempt instead of passing. But we can still hope for a five-card suit in her hand. But which suit?

• Note that dummy did not transfer to a major over her partner's 1 NT; dummy does not have a five-card (or longer) major. 
• If dummy was 4-4 in the majors -- or even 4-3 -- she might have bid Stayman even with a very weak hand, planning to pass any response by opener

So if partner has a five-card suit, it is somewhat more likely to be a major suit because the opponents haven't peeped about the majors.

When leading against notrump, three-card honor sequences are always a good choice: king-queen-jack, queen-jack-ten, jack-ten-nine.  There is almost no danger of setting up a trick for declarer in those suits. Two-and-a-half honor sequences are almost as good -- king-queen-ten, queen-jack-nine, jack-ten-eight -- because there is only a very slight chance of giving up a trick. A suit with only two touching honors (and no supporting card one step below) is still a reasonable choice; the standard lead is low from honor-honor-fourth or fifth, but lead the top honor from honor-honor-third.

In this hand, then, the ♥ J is the standout lead. We hope to find partner with heart length, and not blow a trick on the opening lead. Our club tricks can wait patiently for somebody else to lead that suit.

Bonus Minute
When I started to play bridge, the standard advice for notrump leads was "fourth best from your longest and strongest." That was a long time ago; in those days it was dummy's job to go stand watch against dinosaur attacks. 😏  A lot has changed; much of what I learned back then turned out to be wrong (and not just the bridge bits, hmm).

If you are interested in more effective defense against notrump contracts, I highly recommend Winning Notrump Leads by David Bird and Taf Anthias. The authors created several hundred thousand computer-generated hands matching up with various notrump auctions, and did the double-dummy analyses to determine which leads were most effective in various situations. One key takeaway: Fourth-best from four is probably a waste of time. I specifically owe my first Regional Knockout Team win to the advice in that book. It is not an easy read, but well worth some patient effort by intermediate-to-advanced players; the book truly is a game-changer.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Playing The Odds

From a recent Wydaho online pairs game:

♠ A 8 4
♥ J 10 8
♦ Q 10 8
♣ A Q 9 7

Partner passes as dealer, then the auction proceeds 1 NT (15-17) on your right, all pass.
What do you lead? Since this is featured in a blog post, it must be some sort of "problem hand"; take an extra moment to think it over.

If you are like most players in that event, your fingers (or mouse) are hovering over the ♣ 7. Let's take a closer look at the ♣ 7 lead.

Whether the ♣ 7 is an effective lead depends on where the ♣ K is!

• If partner has the ♣ K, wonderful, you struck gold: At least three, possibly four club tricks for our side.
• If dummy has the ♣ K it will always win a trick, but the question is who has the ♣ J? If the king is in dummy and declarer has the jack, declarer will play low from dummy and win with the jack. That's not so good for you; declarer will score two club tricks, and your queen is in jeopardy. Ugh.
• If declarer has the ♣ K, ugh! The club lead lets declarer score a trick with the king, a trick that she cannot win without your help. Consider instead that if declarer has to lead clubs, or if partner leads clubs, your ace-queen will trap declarer's king; two club tricks for you, zero for declarer.

We don't know where the king is (without peeking, anyway); the best we can do is estimate what the chances are. Here's how:

There are 40 high card points in every deal: the AKQJ in each of four suits. The relative odds of any particular honor card in any particular hand roughly correspond to the relative distribution of high-card points in the four hands. (It gets more complicated if you know anything about the suit distributions.) 

Here you have 13 points, which leaves 27 points in the other three hands. Declarer has at least 15 points for her 1NT opening. So there is a 15 of 27 chance that declarer has the king; that's more than a 50-50 chance that the club lead will blow a trick (55.5% to be exact, but who wants to be exact with bad news like that).

But partner could have the king; what are the chances of that?  We don't know partner's point count, but we can make a rough estimate. There are at most 12 HCP outstanding (you have 13, declarer has 15-17). If dummy had 8 or 9 points, dummy would have bid over 1NT; so dummy is limited to 7 points. If partner had all the missing honors, partner might have bid over 1NT. So we guess to call it even, 6 points for dummy, 6 points for partner. A 6 in 27 chance is a bit less than 1 in 4, 22% to be exact. 

So, our chances on a club lead are:

• Partner has the king, 6 in 27 chances. 
• Dummy has the king, 6 in 27 chances. And if so, then 15 of 24 that declarer has the jack.(That works out to roughly 2 in 27 are break-even, 4 in 27 blow a trick).  Ugh. 
• Declarer has the king, 15 in 27 chances. Ugh.

If we lead a club, we have a 22% chance of something good, 8% of breaking even (king in dummy, partner or dummy has the jack), and a 70% chance of blowing a trick to declarer's king or jack.

PRINCIPLES:

• The distribution of high card points around the table is a rough estimate for the chances of any specific honor being in any particular hand.
• When most of the high cards are on your right, leading fourth-best from a broken honor holding is likely to lose a trick that you could win by just waiting.

Still want to lead the ♣ 7?  No, I didn't think so. Me neither. So what should we lead? Stay tuned...

Bonus Minute:  If you had a weaker hand, the chances of finding the ♣ K (or any other honor) in partner's hand are greater because partner will have a share of more missing high cards. Declarer will have a correspondingly lower chance of holding the ♣ K. Even so, the ace-queen holding is almost always dangerous to lead from when declarer has the strongest hand; with a 1NT opener, declarer will have at least 15 of 34 chances to hold the king. Figuring out why would be a good homework exercise...

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Clearing The Way

 

	♠ Q 9 7 6 ♥ Q J ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ A K 10 4
	N W E S	♠ 8 5 2 ♥ A 9 5 4 ♦ K Q 9 3 ♣ 9 3

Partner	North	You	South
			Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 NT
All pass

Partner led the ♥ 6, fourth-best, to your ace. You returned the ♥ 4 (original fourth-best) to partner's king. Declarer played the ♥ 3 and then the ♥ 8.

Pop Quiz: How many hearts did partner start with?

ANSWER: Probably five. Partner has at least four hearts for that lead. Nobody has played the ♥ 2 yet. A cagey declarer might be hiding the deuce; a careless declarer would not.

Does partner know that you had four hearts?

ANSWER: Most likely yes. Declarer had the opportunity to bid a four-card heart suit, but did not. If partner had five hearts, she'll know your ♥ 4 (lowest card available) was from either two or four originally. Partner knows declarer might have bid a four-card heart suit, so partner knows you have most likely have four.

AT TRICK THREE, PARTNER PLAYS THE ♠ K. Which spade do you play?

ANSWER: Play the ♠ 2, discouraging. Partner must have the ♠ A as well, and is lighting a candle in the window to show the way back to her hand. You don't want her to cash out spades; you want her to continue with hearts!

AT TRICK FOUR, PARTNER PLAYS THE ♥ 10. Now what?

ANSWER: Get out of partner's way; play the ♥ 9! Notice that your ♥ 5 will then not be able to take a trick. This is called an "unblocking" play. Partner made a thoughtful play of the ♠ K first, to show you that she has a sure entry. That ♠ K is a very strong indication that she had five hearts and would like you to unblock . Declarer has at most one heart left if partner had four, so no danger of setting up a heart trick for declarer. If partner had five hearts, you want partner to stay on lead. On the fifth heart, you will signal enthusiastically for a diamond lead, while partner still has control of the spade suit. If partner only had four hearts, she should still be able to figure out why you unblocked to keep her on lead rather than wasting a spade entry.

Of course if you have the two highest remaining hearts right now, there is no way to unblock. Playing the highest of your two cards would be suggesting suit preference high (spades); you want diamonds, not spades, so you would play the lower of two equal hearts.

	♠ Q 9 7 6 ♥ Q J ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ A K 10 4
♠ A K 4 ♥ K 10 7 6 2 ♦ 8 2 ♣ 8 6 5	N W E S	♠ 8 5 2 ♥ A 9 5 4 ♦ K Q 9 3 ♣ 9 3
	♠ J 10 3 ♥ 8 3 ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ Q J 7 2

Notice that if you play the ♥ 5 instead of the ♥ 9, you must eventually return a spade to partner's ace in order for her to cash the fifth heart. But that will set up dummy's queen, giving declarer a trick. If you keep partner on lead, she can run the hearts and then lead a diamond per your signal. That will set up a diamond trick for you while partner still has control of the spade suit. One notrump down two; nice work!

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

HSP: Candle In The Window

"When I'm your partner, the secret to this game is to Help Stupid Partner." -- Steve B.

	♠ Q 9 7 6 ♥ Q J ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ A K 10 4
♠ A K 4 ♥ K 10 7 6 2 ♦ 8 2 ♣ 8 6 5	N W E S

You	North	Partner	South
			Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 NT
All pass

(Standard leads and carding) You led the ♥ 6, fourth-best, catching partner with the ace. She returned the ♥ 4 to your king. Declarer played the ♥ 3 and then the ♥ 8. This is going well!

Pop Quiz: How many hearts did partner start with? What about declarer?

ANSWER: Partner had either 2 or 4 hearts initially. When partner returned the ♥ 4, that is her lowest heart (you can see the 2 and the 3). If she only had two hearts, she wouldn't have a choice. But if she started with four hearts, she would return her original fourth-best heart. With three hearts initially, she would return the second-highest (the nine or the five, in this case).

Either two or four? Can you be more specific?

ANSWER: Probably four. Remember the auction? Declarer had the opportunity to bid a four-card heart suit, but did not. Would declarer bid four hearts to the nine-eight? Maybe, maybe not. If declarer had four hearts, how likely is that she would specifically play the three and then the eight? A cagey declarer just might try that. But that declarer might also have tried the five and then the nine, or some other combination.

So partner almost certainly has ♥ 9 5 remaining. If you cash the ten, partner's nine will win the next heart trick and she'll have to figure how to get back to your hand. If you lead low to partner's nine... What if declarer fooled you with her bidding and play? Oh no, what if partner made a mistake, and held only  ♥ A 5 3 to start with? Declarer would be delighted to score her ♥ 9!

So, now what? High heart? Low heart? Something else?

ANSWER: Put a candle in the window for partner. Play the ♠ K! Even if you normally lead ace from ace-king, don't lead the ace here. When the king holds the trick, it will be crystal-clear to partner that you also have the ace. With the queen in dummy, declarer would certainly capture your king if she had the ace. Once you play the ♠ K, partner will know the way back to your hand. Leading low to partner's nine should normally work out okay, but you will be very embarrassed if it doesn't.😢

Why play the ♠ K right now, instead of after the ♥ 10?

Three reasons:

1. If partner did only have two hearts, she will have to discard on the ♥ 10. Knowing that you have the ace of spades might help her choose her discards more accurately.
2. When you know how the defense should proceed, tell your partner too, so she can make better decisions.
3. (The third reason is worth an entire post of its own.)

-- Ray 

Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Time For: Support Doubles

Time For: Introducing conventions that might not be familiar to some players, but are nearly universal in common usage such as ACBL Bridge Bulletin Standard. Whether or not you adopt the convention -- I suggest that you do! --  at the very least you should know enough about it to understand the opponents' usage. 

 

You hold ♠ K 10 ♥ A J 8 ♦ K 9 7 ♣ Q 10 9 6 3

You	LHO	Pard	RHO
1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥	Pass
?

Do you bid 1 NT or 2 ♥? There is no universally-agreed answer; this is a matter of style for partnership discussion (I prefer four-card raises).

What about the same hand in a slightly different auction?

You	LHO	Pard	RHO
1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥	1 ♠
?

There is a standard convention that applies here: Support Doubles. Very simply,

• if you open,
• partner bids a major suit at the one-level, and
• the player to your right bids at the one or two-level, then

Double shows three-card support for partner
A raise (2 ♥ here) shows four-card support.
Any other action tends to deny support for partner's suit. Your first priority is to show the fit if you have one.

If you double to show three-card support, partner can choose to rebid her suit -- possibly playing in a 4-3 fit -- or take other action as appropriate. Partner should not rebid notrump without a stopper in the opponent's suit.

THE PRINCIPLE: In competitive auctions, knowing the combined length of your trump fit is essential for judging whether to compete another level higher in the auction. Partner might need to know right now whether you have three or four card support; your left-hand opponent might make a preemptive jump raise. In competitive auctions, having a few extra high card points is irrelevant; points don't take tricks, trumps do. (If you want to learn more, read up on the "Law of Total Tricks").

Okay, same hand in another similar auction:
♠ K 10 ♥ A J 8 ♦ K 9 7 ♣ Q 10 9 6 3

You	LHO	Pard	RHO
1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥	Dbl
?

Yep, you guessed it... Redouble with three-card support. A raise would show four-card support.

Support Doubles and Redoubles are normally only used through the two-level, or perhaps only through two of partner's suit; discuss this with your partner beforehand. 

The Support Double convention was invented by American expert Eric Rodwell in the 1970s. As of January 2021, ACBL Alert Procedures regard Support Doubles and Redoubles as STANDARD; no Alert is required. In online play, you should explain nonetheless.

What if you want to double the overcall for penalty? Pass smoothly in tempo, and hope partner re-opens with a double, or that the opponents bid the same suit a level higher.

-- Ray 
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)