First, Do No Harm

 Continuing with our hand from a recent Wydaho online pairs game:

♠ A 8 4
♥ J 10 8
♦ Q 10 8
♣ A Q 9 7

You are on lead against 1 NT; declarer opened 1 NT (15-17) after partner passed.

THE PRINCIPLE: Think of notrump contracts as a race: Can the defenders set up and cash their winning tricks before declarer crosses the finish line? 

We saw that a fourth-best club lead from this hand -- underleading the ace-queen -- has about a 70% chance of blowing a trick, giving declarer a trick she cannot get on her own. (To be precise, 71.2%, considering declarer could have 16 or 17 points.) Let's not give declarer a one-trick headstart 😝

We usually want a lead that will help establish our winning tricks, without giving away too much in the process. Against a notrump contract, finding and establishing five-card (or longer) suits is usually the winning strategy. If you don't have a five-card suit that looks worthwhile, maybe partner does; your two- and three-card holdings might be where partner has some length.

Where might partner have a long suit?  Note that if partner has a six-card (or longer) suit, she might well have opened a weak two or a higher preempt instead of passing. But we can still hope for a five-card suit in her hand. But which suit?

• Note that dummy did not transfer to a major over her partner's 1 NT; dummy does not have a five-card (or longer) major. 
• If dummy was 4-4 in the majors -- or even 4-3 -- she might have bid Stayman even with a very weak hand, planning to pass any response by opener

So if partner has a five-card suit, it is somewhat more likely to be a major suit because the opponents haven't peeped about the majors.

When leading against notrump, three-card honor sequences are always a good choice: king-queen-jack, queen-jack-ten, jack-ten-nine.  There is almost no danger of setting up a trick for declarer in those suits. Two-and-a-half honor sequences are almost as good -- king-queen-ten, queen-jack-nine, jack-ten-eight -- because there is only a very slight chance of giving up a trick. A suit with only two touching honors (and no supporting card one step below) is still a reasonable choice; the standard lead is low from honor-honor-fourth or fifth, but lead the top honor from honor-honor-third.

In this hand, then, the ♥ J is the standout lead. We hope to find partner with heart length, and not blow a trick on the opening lead. Our club tricks can wait patiently for somebody else to lead that suit.

Bonus Minute
When I started to play bridge, the standard advice for notrump leads was "fourth best from your longest and strongest." That was a long time ago; in those days it was dummy's job to go stand watch against dinosaur attacks. 😏  A lot has changed; much of what I learned back then turned out to be wrong (and not just the bridge bits, hmm).

If you are interested in more effective defense against notrump contracts, I highly recommend Winning Notrump Leads by David Bird and Taf Anthias. The authors created several hundred thousand computer-generated hands matching up with various notrump auctions, and did the double-dummy analyses to determine which leads were most effective in various situations. One key takeaway: Fourth-best from four is probably a waste of time. I specifically owe my first Regional Knockout Team win to the advice in that book. It is not an easy read, but well worth some patient effort by intermediate-to-advanced players; the book truly is a game-changer.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Playing The Odds

From a recent Wydaho online pairs game:

♠ A 8 4
♥ J 10 8
♦ Q 10 8
♣ A Q 9 7

Partner passes as dealer, then the auction proceeds 1 NT (15-17) on your right, all pass.
What do you lead? Since this is featured in a blog post, it must be some sort of "problem hand"; take an extra moment to think it over.

If you are like most players in that event, your fingers (or mouse) are hovering over the ♣ 7. Let's take a closer look at the ♣ 7 lead.

Whether the ♣ 7 is an effective lead depends on where the ♣ K is!

• If partner has the ♣ K, wonderful, you struck gold: At least three, possibly four club tricks for our side.
• If dummy has the ♣ K it will always win a trick, but the question is who has the ♣ J? If the king is in dummy and declarer has the jack, declarer will play low from dummy and win with the jack. That's not so good for you; declarer will score two club tricks, and your queen is in jeopardy. Ugh.
• If declarer has the ♣ K, ugh! The club lead lets declarer score a trick with the king, a trick that she cannot win without your help. Consider instead that if declarer has to lead clubs, or if partner leads clubs, your ace-queen will trap declarer's king; two club tricks for you, zero for declarer.

We don't know where the king is (without peeking, anyway); the best we can do is estimate what the chances are. Here's how:

There are 40 high card points in every deal: the AKQJ in each of four suits. The relative odds of any particular honor card in any particular hand roughly correspond to the relative distribution of high-card points in the four hands. (It gets more complicated if you know anything about the suit distributions.) 

Here you have 13 points, which leaves 27 points in the other three hands. Declarer has at least 15 points for her 1NT opening. So there is a 15 of 27 chance that declarer has the king; that's more than a 50-50 chance that the club lead will blow a trick (55.5% to be exact, but who wants to be exact with bad news like that).

But partner could have the king; what are the chances of that?  We don't know partner's point count, but we can make a rough estimate. There are at most 12 HCP outstanding (you have 13, declarer has 15-17). If dummy had 8 or 9 points, dummy would have bid over 1NT; so dummy is limited to 7 points. If partner had all the missing honors, partner might have bid over 1NT. So we guess to call it even, 6 points for dummy, 6 points for partner. A 6 in 27 chance is a bit less than 1 in 4, 22% to be exact. 

So, our chances on a club lead are:

• Partner has the king, 6 in 27 chances. 
• Dummy has the king, 6 in 27 chances. And if so, then 15 of 24 that declarer has the jack.(That works out to roughly 2 in 27 are break-even, 4 in 27 blow a trick).  Ugh. 
• Declarer has the king, 15 in 27 chances. Ugh.

If we lead a club, we have a 22% chance of something good, 8% of breaking even (king in dummy, partner or dummy has the jack), and a 70% chance of blowing a trick to declarer's king or jack.

PRINCIPLES:

• The distribution of high card points around the table is a rough estimate for the chances of any specific honor being in any particular hand.
• When most of the high cards are on your right, leading fourth-best from a broken honor holding is likely to lose a trick that you could win by just waiting.

Still want to lead the ♣ 7?  No, I didn't think so. Me neither. So what should we lead? Stay tuned...

Bonus Minute:  If you had a weaker hand, the chances of finding the ♣ K (or any other honor) in partner's hand are greater because partner will have a share of more missing high cards. Declarer will have a correspondingly lower chance of holding the ♣ K. Even so, the ace-queen holding is almost always dangerous to lead from when declarer has the strongest hand; with a 1NT opener, declarer will have at least 15 of 34 chances to hold the king. Figuring out why would be a good homework exercise...

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Clearing The Way

 

	♠ Q 9 7 6 ♥ Q J ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ A K 10 4
	N W E S	♠ 8 5 2 ♥ A 9 5 4 ♦ K Q 9 3 ♣ 9 3

Partner	North	You	South
			Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 NT
All pass

Partner led the ♥ 6, fourth-best, to your ace. You returned the ♥ 4 (original fourth-best) to partner's king. Declarer played the ♥ 3 and then the ♥ 8.

Pop Quiz: How many hearts did partner start with?

ANSWER: Probably five. Partner has at least four hearts for that lead. Nobody has played the ♥ 2 yet. A cagey declarer might be hiding the deuce; a careless declarer would not.

Does partner know that you had four hearts?

ANSWER: Most likely yes. Declarer had the opportunity to bid a four-card heart suit, but did not. If partner had five hearts, she'll know your ♥ 4 (lowest card available) was from either two or four originally. Partner knows declarer might have bid a four-card heart suit, so partner knows you have most likely have four.

AT TRICK THREE, PARTNER PLAYS THE ♠ K. Which spade do you play?

ANSWER: Play the ♠ 2, discouraging. Partner must have the ♠ A as well, and is lighting a candle in the window to show the way back to her hand. You don't want her to cash out spades; you want her to continue with hearts!

AT TRICK FOUR, PARTNER PLAYS THE ♥ 10. Now what?

ANSWER: Get out of partner's way; play the ♥ 9! Notice that your ♥ 5 will then not be able to take a trick. This is called an "unblocking" play. Partner made a thoughtful play of the ♠ K first, to show you that she has a sure entry. That ♠ K is a very strong indication that she had five hearts and would like you to unblock . Declarer has at most one heart left if partner had four, so no danger of setting up a heart trick for declarer. If partner had five hearts, you want partner to stay on lead. On the fifth heart, you will signal enthusiastically for a diamond lead, while partner still has control of the spade suit. If partner only had four hearts, she should still be able to figure out why you unblocked to keep her on lead rather than wasting a spade entry.

Of course if you have the two highest remaining hearts right now, there is no way to unblock. Playing the highest of your two cards would be suggesting suit preference high (spades); you want diamonds, not spades, so you would play the lower of two equal hearts.

	♠ Q 9 7 6 ♥ Q J ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ A K 10 4
♠ A K 4 ♥ K 10 7 6 2 ♦ 8 2 ♣ 8 6 5	N W E S	♠ 8 5 2 ♥ A 9 5 4 ♦ K Q 9 3 ♣ 9 3
	♠ J 10 3 ♥ 8 3 ♦ A J 10 6 ♣ Q J 7 2

Notice that if you play the ♥ 5 instead of the ♥ 9, you must eventually return a spade to partner's ace in order for her to cash the fifth heart. But that will set up dummy's queen, giving declarer a trick. If you keep partner on lead, she can run the hearts and then lead a diamond per your signal. That will set up a diamond trick for you while partner still has control of the spade suit. One notrump down two; nice work!

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

HSP: Candle In The Window

"When I'm your partner, the secret to this game is to Help Stupid Partner." -- Steve B.

	♠ Q 9 7 6 ♥ Q J ♦ 7 5 4 ♣ A K 10 4
♠ A K 4 ♥ K 10 7 6 2 ♦ 8 2 ♣ 8 6 5	N W E S

You	North	Partner	South
			Pass
Pass	1 ♣	Pass	1 NT
All pass

(Standard leads and carding) You led the ♥ 6, fourth-best, catching partner with the ace. She returned the ♥ 4 to your king. Declarer played the ♥ 3 and then the ♥ 8. This is going well!

Pop Quiz: How many hearts did partner start with? What about declarer?

ANSWER: Partner had either 2 or 4 hearts initially. When partner returned the ♥ 4, that is her lowest heart (you can see the 2 and the 3). If she only had two hearts, she wouldn't have a choice. But if she started with four hearts, she would return her original fourth-best heart. With three hearts initially, she would return the second-highest (the nine or the five, in this case).

Either two or four? Can you be more specific?

ANSWER: Probably four. Remember the auction? Declarer had the opportunity to bid a four-card heart suit, but did not. Would declarer bid four hearts to the nine-eight? Maybe, maybe not. If declarer had four hearts, how likely is that she would specifically play the three and then the eight? A cagey declarer just might try that. But that declarer might also have tried the five and then the nine, or some other combination.

So partner almost certainly has ♥ 9 5 remaining. If you cash the ten, partner's nine will win the next heart trick and she'll have to figure how to get back to your hand. If you lead low to partner's nine... What if declarer fooled you with her bidding and play? Oh no, what if partner made a mistake, and held only  ♥ A 5 3 to start with? Declarer would be delighted to score her ♥ 9!

So, now what? High heart? Low heart? Something else?

ANSWER: Put a candle in the window for partner. Play the ♠ K! Even if you normally lead ace from ace-king, don't lead the ace here. When the king holds the trick, it will be crystal-clear to partner that you also have the ace. With the queen in dummy, declarer would certainly capture your king if she had the ace. Once you play the ♠ K, partner will know the way back to your hand. Leading low to partner's nine should normally work out okay, but you will be very embarrassed if it doesn't.😢

Why play the ♠ K right now, instead of after the ♥ 10?

Three reasons:

1. If partner did only have two hearts, she will have to discard on the ♥ 10. Knowing that you have the ace of spades might help her choose her discards more accurately.
2. When you know how the defense should proceed, tell your partner too, so she can make better decisions.
3. (The third reason is worth an entire post of its own.)

-- Ray 

Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Time For: Support Doubles

Time For: Introducing conventions that might not be familiar to some players, but are nearly universal in common usage such as ACBL Bridge Bulletin Standard. Whether or not you adopt the convention -- I suggest that you do! --  at the very least you should know enough about it to understand the opponents' usage. 

 

You hold ♠ K 10 ♥ A J 8 ♦ K 9 7 ♣ Q 10 9 6 3

You	LHO	Pard	RHO
1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥	Pass
?

Do you bid 1 NT or 2 ♥? There is no universally-agreed answer; this is a matter of style for partnership discussion (I prefer four-card raises).

What about the same hand in a slightly different auction?

You	LHO	Pard	RHO
1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥	1 ♠
?

There is a standard convention that applies here: Support Doubles. Very simply,

• if you open,
• partner bids a major suit at the one-level, and
• the player to your right bids at the one or two-level, then

Double shows three-card support for partner
A raise (2 ♥ here) shows four-card support.
Any other action tends to deny support for partner's suit. Your first priority is to show the fit if you have one.

If you double to show three-card support, partner can choose to rebid her suit -- possibly playing in a 4-3 fit -- or take other action as appropriate. Partner should not rebid notrump without a stopper in the opponent's suit.

THE PRINCIPLE: In competitive auctions, knowing the combined length of your trump fit is essential for judging whether to compete another level higher in the auction. Partner might need to know right now whether you have three or four card support; your left-hand opponent might make a preemptive jump raise. In competitive auctions, having a few extra high card points is irrelevant; points don't take tricks, trumps do. (If you want to learn more, read up on the "Law of Total Tricks").

Okay, same hand in another similar auction:
♠ K 10 ♥ A J 8 ♦ K 9 7 ♣ Q 10 9 6 3

You	LHO	Pard	RHO
1 ♣	Pass	1 ♥	Dbl
?

Yep, you guessed it... Redouble with three-card support. A raise would show four-card support.

Support Doubles and Redoubles are normally only used through the two-level, or perhaps only through two of partner's suit; discuss this with your partner beforehand. 

The Support Double convention was invented by American expert Eric Rodwell in the 1970s. As of January 2021, ACBL Alert Procedures regard Support Doubles and Redoubles as STANDARD; no Alert is required. In online play, you should explain nonetheless.

What if you want to double the overcall for penalty? Pass smoothly in tempo, and hope partner re-opens with a double, or that the opponents bid the same suit a level higher.

-- Ray 
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Time For: Four-Suit Transfers

Time For: Introducing conventions that might not be familiar to some players, but are nearly universal in common usage such as ACBL Bridge Bulletin Standard. Whether or not you adopt the convention -- I suggest that you do! --  at the very least you should know enough about it to understand the opponents' usage. 

Let's talk about minor suits after partner opens 1NT. Right now you might be playing something like this (note the highlighted areas):

• 2 ♠ is a transfer to clubs; responder can correct to diamonds for a signoff.
• 3 ♣ and 3 ♦ are invitational, showing at least a six-card suit.

This approach has some problems:

• If responder has diamonds, she will be declarer. Opener's strong hand will be exposed to the defenders
• If responder has an invitational minor suit hand, she will be declarer.
• If responder has a game-forcing hand with a good minor suit, responder must bid 2 ♠ (transfer) and then rebid 3NT or four/five of the minor. There is no way to stop in 3NT with game-forcing diamonds. 
• There is no way to show hands with 5-5 in the minors, whether weak or strong.

The solution to these problems is to play four-suit transfers. Responder can transfer to either minor, and find out if opener has a super hand and a good fit. All without going past three of the minor, and without wrong-siding the hand in most common cases. Here's how:

1NT - 2♠ is a transfer to clubs. Announce "clubs"

• Opener accepts 3♣ unless she has a "super-accept" (at least king-third with good values and no weak side suit, since 3NT will be a likely landing spot)
  Responder can then Pass, bid 3NT as a choice of games, bid 4NT ace-asking, bid 5♣ to play, cue-bid an ace (or control) with slam interest, or jump-shift to show shortness in the bid suit (a splinter).
• Opener bids 2NT ("one under" the suit) with a super-accept. Alert! "super-accept clubs"
  If responder has a minimum, she rebids 3♣ to play.
  If responder has extras, she can bid 3NT (suggesting a final contract) or cue-bid an outside ace suggesting the minor-suit contract, possibly with slam interest. After a cue-bid, opener should bid the minor to complete the transfer. 4NT by responder is ace-asking. Jump rebids by responder are splinters, showing shortness in the bid suit.

1NT - 2NT is a transfer to diamonds. Announce "diamonds"

• Opener accepts 3♦ unless she has a super-accept. Responder can Pass or make a forward-going bid as above.
  
• Opener bids 3♣  ("one under") with a super-accept. Alert! "super-accept diamonds"
  Responder can sign off in 3♦ or make a forward-going bid as above.

1NT - 2♣ - 2anything - 2NT is Invitational. Alert! "might not have a four-card major"

All balanced invitational hands (say, 8-9 HCP) must first bid 2♣ Stayman and then rebid 2NT. Opener should not proceed unless she wants to accept the quantitative invitation. Do not alert the 2♣ bid; alert the 2NT rebid.

We no longer need the 3♣ and 3♦ calls to show invitational values, so we put these calls to a better use: showing 5-5 in the minor suits, either weak or strong.

1NT - 3♣ is 5-5 in the minors, weak. Alert! "5-5 minors weak"

Opener can pass, or correct to 3♦ with a preference. Responder could be very weak, so opener should never raise clubs.

1NT - 3♦ is 5-5 in the minors, game-forcing.  Alert! "5-5 minors game forcing"

The auction is forcing to game. Opener can suggest 3NT to play, or choose a minor at the four-level. Subsequent 4NT is ace-asking.

Now your convention card looks like this:

A Clear Signal

What is your partnership agreement for signaling when following suit to partner's high honor?

You are East, holding ♠ 10 9 5 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ Q 9 ♣ J 10 9 4

Partner	North	You	South
	1 ♦	Pass	1 ♠
4 ♥	4 ♠	5 ♥	5 ♠
All pass

Partner leads the ♥ K, declarer plays low from dummy.

	♠ A 8 2 ♥ J 7 ♦ A K J 6 5 4 ♣ 8 6
	N W E S	♠ 10 9 5 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ Q 9 ♣ J 10 9 4

In your favorite partnership, what is your carding agreement here: Attitude? Count? Suit preference? Something more complicated? What should you signal?

ANSWER: Okay, it is a trick question. Signal with the ♥ A. The ace is a dual-message signal:
(1) Signaling that you can count to thirteen, and
(2) Signaling that you know how to play bridge.

Signaling that you can count to thirteen. Surely partner has at least seven hearts for her 4 ♥ bid. Two hearts in dummy, three hearts in your hand; that leaves declarer with at most one heart. This is the only chance to reach your hand in the heart suit. (Note: If you held only ace-doubleton of hearts, you would still overtake partner's king; partner may well have an eight-card heart suit.)

Signaling that you know how to play bridge. If your side has any other sure tricks coming, they must be in clubs. Clubs must be led from your hand in case partner has a broken honor holding.

Even if declarer ruffs your ace, partner will still get the right message: you want to lead through declarer's hand to partner. The club suit is the obvious choice. Your ♥ A play suggests that you do not have a high club honor that partner can safely lead toward.

	♠ A 8 2 ♥ J 7 ♦ A K J 6 5 4 ♣ 8 6
♠ 7 ♥ K Q 10 9 8 6 2 ♦ 7 ♣ A Q 7 2	N W E S	♠ 10 9 5 3 ♥ A 5 3 ♦ Q 9 ♣ J 10 9 4
	♠ K Q J 6 4 ♥ 4 ♦ 10 8 3 2 ♣ K 5 3

Unless you play the ♥ A and then switch to clubs, declarer will discard two club losers on dummy's diamonds, making five. You will get a better score if you set the contract 😎

BONUS MINUTE: With the West hand, the expert's lead is the ♥ Q -- not the king! You only expect to cash one round of hearts, and you really don't want to be on lead at trick two. By leading the ♥ Q, partner will rise with the ace (if she has it) in case declarer has a singleton king. When her ace holds -- if it does -- partner will realize why you made an unusual lead. This type of play is known as "building a fence" for partner, steering her toward the winning action.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)