Friday, March 10, 2017

Out Like A Lamb

Yes, I've been saving this article for March 😏

South Deals
None Vul
A 9
10 8
A 10 9 8 7 3
8 5 2
N
WE
S

YouNorthEastSouth
1 
1 1 2 3 
Pass4 PassPass
??

Okay, it wasn't the best 1  overcall ever but all those lovely spots made us do it. Partner's 2  preempt was barely a speed bump for the opponents on their way to game. Now what?

ANSWER: I hope you recognize this as an easy problem. Pass; there is no second choice.

Were you considering a double? With only two defensive tricks, and partner having shown a weak hand, the odds aren't great that we can set 4 . Yes, if partner has a singleton diamond and another trick somewhere, the opponents will be down one for +100 instead of +50. But if not, you'll score -590 instead of -420. Not a very good bet if you ask me...

Were you considering 4 ? That train already left the station. If you were bidding 4  on this hand, you should have done so on the previous round over 3 . That would have put pressure on the opponents, forcing them to make a 3-or-5 decision. Even bidding 3  last time around might have made their life a little bit more difficult. But now the opponents have everything they need to make the right decision over your obvious sacrifice:
  • they have freely bid game and are now in a forcing pass auction; they can judge their respective strength with some accuracy
  • you didn't bid 3  competitively, suggesting that you thought 3  was hopeless (down 2) and thus 4  will be down 3!
THE PRINCIPLE: Taking a deliberate obvious sacrifice is almost always a mistake. Preempting aggressively -- taking bidding space away from the opponents -- is fine; it forces the opponents to make choices in the absence of better information. Bidding one more in a competitive who-knows-who-can-make-what auction is fine. But obvious sacrifices usually turn out badly because the opponents already know enough to make a good decision. And the lie of the cards that lets you get out for -300 often means you have defensive tricks to set them; there are no good sacrifices against an unmakeable contract.

So, come in like a lion if you wish, but be willing to go out like a lamb. And remember that sacrificial lambs just get slaughtered...

South Deals
None Vul
7 2
A 7 6 4 3
K Q J 6 5 2
A 9
10 8
A 10 9 8 7 3
8 5 2
N
WE
S
Q 10 8 6 5 3
Q 5 2
Q 10 7 6
K J 4
K J 9
4
A K J 9 4 3

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes  Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

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