Out Like A Lamb

Yes, I've been saving this article for March 😏

South Deals None Vul
♠ A 9 ♥ 10 8 ♦ A 10 9 8 7 3 ♣ 8 5 2	N W E S

You	North	East	South
			1 ♣
1 ♦	1 ♥	2 ♠	3 ♥
Pass	4 ♥	Pass	Pass
??

Okay, it wasn't the best 1 ♦ overcall ever but all those lovely spots made us do it. Partner's 2 ♠ preempt was barely a speed bump for the opponents on their way to game. Now what?

ANSWER: I hope you recognize this as an easy problem. Pass; there is no second choice.

Were you considering a double? With only two defensive tricks, and partner having shown a weak hand, the odds aren't great that we can set 4 ♥. Yes, if partner has a singleton diamond and another trick somewhere, the opponents will be down one for +100 instead of +50. But if not, you'll score -590 instead of -420. Not a very good bet if you ask me...

Were you considering 4 ♠? That train already left the station. If you were bidding 4 ♠ on this hand, you should have done so on the previous round over 3 ♥. That would have put pressure on the opponents, forcing them to make a 3-or-5 decision. Even bidding 3 ♠ last time around might have made their life a little bit more difficult. But now the opponents have everything they need to make the right decision over your obvious sacrifice:

• they have freely bid game and are now in a forcing pass auction; they can judge their respective strength with some accuracy
• you didn't bid 3 ♠ competitively, suggesting that you thought 3 ♠ was hopeless (down 2) and thus 4 ♠ will be down 3!

THE PRINCIPLE: Taking a deliberate obvious sacrifice is almost always a mistake. Preempting aggressively -- taking bidding space away from the opponents -- is fine; it forces the opponents to make choices in the absence of better information. Bidding one more in a competitive who-knows-who-can-make-what auction is fine. But obvious sacrifices usually turn out badly because the opponents already know enough to make a good decision. And the lie of the cards that lets you get out for -300 often means you have defensive tricks to set them; there are no good sacrifices against an unmakeable contract.

So, come in like a lion if you wish, but be willing to go out like a lamb. And remember that sacrificial lambs just get slaughtered...

South Deals None Vul	♠ 7 2 ♥ A 7 6 4 3 ♦ K Q J 6 5 2 ♣ —
♠ A 9 ♥ 10 8 ♦ A 10 9 8 7 3 ♣ 8 5 2	N W E S	♠ Q 10 8 6 5 3 ♥ Q 5 2 ♦ — ♣ Q 10 7 6
	♠ K J 4 ♥ K J 9 ♦ 4 ♣ A K J 9 4 3

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes  Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)