A Perfect Minimum

A friend recently asked me, "What is the most noticeable difference between average bridge players and the real experts?"

I'll save that answer for the end. Right now, you hold this 20 HCP monster
♠ A Q 10 5   ♥ A K   ♦ Q J 10 5 4   ♣ A 10

Partner deals and opens 2 ♦, vulnerable. Your partnership agreement is that a weak two opening contains 5-10 HCP and a six-card suit. Your call?

ANSWER: Push hard for slam! Just bidding 6 ♦ would be a good choice. Going through 2 NT (feature-asking or Ogust, however you play it) is fine, but all roads lead to at least 6 ♦ here.

Perhaps you are concerned that a combined total of only 25-30 HCP isn't enough for a slam? Let's consider some possible hands partner might have...

• Is your partnership agreement that a weak-two opening must contain two of the top three honors? Then partner could have as little as
  ♠ x   ♥ x x x   ♦ A K x x x x   ♣ x x x
  making six, the only loser is a club
  
  or perhaps ♠ x x   ♥ x x x   ♦ A K x x x x   ♣ x x
  and need the spade finesse (or maybe a defensive error) to make six.
  
  Or she might have more than her minimum; the heart queen or either black king would be a huge bonus!

• Can partner open a weak two with any honor-sixth? Then she might have as little as 5 HCP
  ♠ x   ♥ Q x x   ♦ K x x x x x   ♣ x x x
  Dummy's club loser goes off on the ♥ Q, losing only the trump ace to make six.
  
  Or ♠ x   ♥ x x x   ♦ A x x x x x   ♣ J x x
  and we need the diamonds to split 1-1 (a 52% chance)
  
  Then again she might have an almost hopeless
  ♠ x x   ♥ x x x   ♦ K x x x x x   ♣ Q x x.
  
  But she might have more than her minimum; again, the heart queen or either black king would be a huge bonus!

THE PRINCIPLE: When considering a seemingly aggressive contract, bid it if it will make when partner has a perfect minimum. If you need partner to hold a perfect maximum, it might be a good idea to restrain your enthusiasm.

Were you considering the potential for 6 NT or even 7 ♦ on this hand? There are hands that partner could hold where those contracts are likely to make. But it will be hard to find out if partner has the exact cards you need, and those holdings tend to fall into the "perfect maximum" category.

FINALE: My answer is that "real experts" don't spend much time thinking about point-count. They imagine specific possible holdings for partner and the opponents based on the auction and play thus far, and then visualize how those hands might play out. (and they usually do it in a few seconds). Developing that visualization skill will make a huge difference in your bridge game!

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)