So What If They Do?

None Vul	♠ K 7 6 5 4 ♥ A J 10 4 ♦ 10 7 ♣ 7 2
	N W E S
	♠ 9 ♥ 8 3 ♦ A K J 9 8 6 ♣ A K 9 4

West	North	East	You
		Pass	1 ♦
1 ♠	Dbl	Pass	2 ♣
2 ♠	Dbl	Pass	3 ♦
All pass

You are playing IMP scoring; the strategy is basically the same as rubber bridge. West leads the ♥ 9. Other than wishing you were in 3NT, what is your plan? How does that diamond finesse look to you?

Let's take a walk through Declarer's Arch: Analyze. Review. Count. How?

Analyze The Lead
What is the ♥ 9 about? Is it a singleton?
ANSWER: Probably not. If it was singleton, East would have king-queen-sixth of hearts and probably would have opened 2 ♥. (These opponents do open a weak two with 5 HCP). The nine is the highest outstanding spot card, so it can't be fourth best. Leading the nine from king-queen-nine or any honor doubleton seems bizarre, so West probably has just some small hearts. You might want to look at the opponents' convention card to see what they lead from three small or four small. (I looked for you; these opponents lead low.) So it appears to be a doubleton heart. And it's almost a certainty that both heart honors are on your right.

Why didn't West lead spades, after bidding them twice? The king is in dummy. West almost certainly has the ace-queen, and probably the jack; not an attractive holding to lead from.

Review The Auction
West bid spades twice all by her lonesome, and East never even peeped. Who has the missing minor suit honors?
ANSWER: West is a favorite to hold all the minor suit honors. East has the king and queen of hearts (inferred from the lead). West surely has at least six spades in this auction. West could have preempted 2 ♠ with ace-queen-sixth, but didn't. That suggests that she thought her hand was too strong for a preempt, and strong enough to overcall and then rebid at the two-level.

Count Your Tricks
You're in a suit contract, so count your losers...
♠: one loser, unavoidable
♥: one loser, unavoidable
♦: maybe one loser, depending on the queen
♣: two losers unless we can ruff one or both of them.

Five losers is one loser too many...

How To Play The Hand?

If the diamond finesse works, that would eliminate a diamond loser. But if the diamond finesse loses, a savvy West will return a diamond to clear dummy's trumps and you will be stuck with two club losers. A 50-50 chance for the finesse? Oh, yeah, we just decided that West likely has the minor suit honors; definitely not a 50% chance of success!

If the finesse is likely to lose, what about playing for a doubleton ♦Q? With five diamonds outstanding, the probability of a doubleton queen -- or any other specific card being doubleton -- is about 34%. That's the basis for the adage "eight ever, nine ever" regarding finesses. But this looks like an "eight never" situation because West is likely to hold the queen. Only a 34% chance here, bleah!

So, with a probable diamond loser, we need to ruff at least one club. As long as both opponents have at least two clubs (92% chance for a 5-2 or 4-3 split), you can play ace and king of clubs and then ruff a club loser or two in dummy.

But what if the clubs are split 5-2 and they overruff dummy on the third round of clubs? What if they overruff on the fourth round of clubs?

ANSWER: So what if they do!! Take a look at your diamond spots. The only card they can overruff with is the queen. You expect them to score the queen anyway. Let them use their winner to ruff one of your losers! 

So play the ♥ A, and get rid of a club loser before you draw trump. A 92% chance sounds really good to me... The complete hand:  

	♠ K 7 6 5 4 ♥ A J 10 4 ♦ 10 7 ♣ 7 2
♠ A Q J 10 8 2 ♥ 9 6 ♦ Q 3 ♣ Q J 3	N W E S	♠ 3 ♥ K Q 7 5 2 ♦ 5 4 2 ♣ 10 8 6 5
	♠ 9 ♥ 8 3 ♦ A K J 9 8 6 ♣ A K 9 4

Note that on the actual layout, 2 ♠ will be down two with careful defense. But at IMPs, as at rubber bridge, it can be risky to double a partscore contract into game; the scoring odds are such that you need to be very confident of a set.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)