So What If They Do?

None Vul	♠ K 7 6 5 4 ♥ A J 10 4 ♦ 10 7 ♣ 7 2
	N W E S
	♠ 9 ♥ 8 3 ♦ A K J 9 8 6 ♣ A K 9 4

West	North	East	You
		Pass	1 ♦
1 ♠	Dbl	Pass	2 ♣
2 ♠	Dbl	Pass	3 ♦
All pass

You are playing IMP scoring; the strategy is basically the same as rubber bridge. West leads the ♥ 9. Other than wishing you were in 3NT, what is your plan? How does that diamond finesse look to you?

Let's take a walk through Declarer's Arch: Analyze. Review. Count. How?

Analyze The Lead
What is the ♥ 9 about? Is it a singleton?
ANSWER: Probably not. If it was singleton, East would have king-queen-sixth of hearts and probably would have opened 2 ♥. (These opponents do open a weak two with 5 HCP). The nine is the highest outstanding spot card, so it can't be fourth best. Leading the nine from king-queen-nine or any honor doubleton seems bizarre, so West probably has just some small hearts. You might want to look at the opponents' convention card to see what they lead from three small or four small. (I looked for you; these opponents lead low.) So it appears to be a doubleton heart. And it's almost a certainty that both heart honors are on your right.

Why didn't West lead spades, after bidding them twice? The king is in dummy. West almost certainly has the ace-queen, and probably the jack; not an attractive holding to lead from.

Review The Auction
West bid spades twice all by her lonesome, and East never even peeped. Who has the missing minor suit honors?
ANSWER: West is a favorite to hold all the minor suit honors. East has the king and queen of hearts (inferred from the lead). West surely has at least six spades in this auction. West could have preempted 2 ♠ with ace-queen-sixth, but didn't. That suggests that she thought her hand was too strong for a preempt, and strong enough to overcall and then rebid at the two-level.

Count Your Tricks
You're in a suit contract, so count your losers...
♠: one loser, unavoidable
♥: one loser, unavoidable
♦: maybe one loser, depending on the queen
♣: two losers unless we can ruff one or both of them.

Five losers is one loser too many...

How To Play The Hand?

If the diamond finesse works, that would eliminate a diamond loser. But if the diamond finesse loses, a savvy West will return a diamond to clear dummy's trumps and you will be stuck with two club losers. A 50-50 chance for the finesse? Oh, yeah, we just decided that West likely has the minor suit honors; definitely not a 50% chance of success!

If the finesse is likely to lose, what about playing for a doubleton ♦Q? With five diamonds outstanding, the probability of a doubleton queen -- or any other specific card being doubleton -- is about 34%. That's the basis for the adage "eight ever, nine ever" regarding finesses. But this looks like an "eight never" situation because West is likely to hold the queen. Only a 34% chance here, bleah!

So, with a probable diamond loser, we need to ruff at least one club. As long as both opponents have at least two clubs (92% chance for a 5-2 or 4-3 split), you can play ace and king of clubs and then ruff a club loser or two in dummy.

But what if the clubs are split 5-2 and they overruff dummy on the third round of clubs? What if they overruff on the fourth round of clubs?

ANSWER: So what if they do!! Take a look at your diamond spots. The only card they can overruff with is the queen. You expect them to score the queen anyway. Let them use their winner to ruff one of your losers! 

So play the ♥ A, and get rid of a club loser before you draw trump. A 92% chance sounds really good to me... The complete hand:  

	♠ K 7 6 5 4 ♥ A J 10 4 ♦ 10 7 ♣ 7 2
♠ A Q J 10 8 2 ♥ 9 6 ♦ Q 3 ♣ Q J 3	N W E S	♠ 3 ♥ K Q 7 5 2 ♦ 5 4 2 ♣ 10 8 6 5
	♠ 9 ♥ 8 3 ♦ A K J 9 8 6 ♣ A K 9 4

Note that on the actual layout, 2 ♠ will be down two with careful defense. But at IMPs, as at rubber bridge, it can be risky to double a partscore contract into game; the scoring odds are such that you need to be very confident of a set.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

HSP: Same But Different

"When I'm your partner, the secret to this game is to Help Stupid Partner." -- Steve B.

Two problems this time. You are on defense in third seat.

South deals N-S Vul	♠ K 5 3 ♥ J 10 3 ♦ A J 8 5 ♣ A 4 2
	N W E S	♠ A J 10 8 2 ♥ Q 7 2 ♦ 3 ♣ 10 9 7 6

West	North	You	South
			2 ♦
2 ♥	3 ♦	3 ♥	Pass
Pass	4 ♦	All pass

Partner leads the ♥ K; declarer plays the ♥ 3. Your play?

ANSWER: Play the ♥ 7 -- encouraging -- to tell partner that you have the ♥ Q. Partner's lead is obviously from the ♥ AK. If you did not have the queen, you would play your lowest heart to tell partner that. You would not want partner to continue hearts unless she has the queen. Note that if declarer started with the doubleton queen of hearts, continuing hearts would give declarer a heart trick.

THE PRINCIPLE: When signalling, your first priority should be attitude in the suit. In a practiced partnership, there are other signalling practices that you might wish to adopt. But in the absence of more detailed agreements, your first priority should be attitude.

Part Two: Same hand, same auction, same opening lead

	♠ K 5 3 ♥ J 10 5 3 ♦ A J 8 5 ♣ A 4
	N W E S	♠ A J 10 8 2 ♥ Q 7 2 ♦ 3 ♣ 10 9 7 6

Partner leads the ♥ K; declarer plays the ♥ 3. Your play?

ANSWER: Play the ♥ 7 -- not encouraging, not to show the queen. You are showing suit-preference for spades.

What's going on here? You have the exact same holding as above, same lead, how can the same ♥ 7 not be encouraging this time? Because after declarer plays, partner will know that you have the queen and that you know she knows that. No need to tell her something that she already knows!

• you both know that partner has at least five hearts for her overcall
• you both know that your raise showed at least three hearts
• with four hearts in dummy, you both know that declarer has at most one heart.

THE PRINCIPLE: When continuing the suit is impossible or not likely to be successful, the defense is in a suit-preference situation. A high card indicates preference for a higher-ranking suit, a low card shows preference for a lower-ranking suit.

Dummy's four-card heart suit makes it clear to both defenders that declarer will be out of hearts; thus the defense is in a suit-preference situation. Partner can account for every card in the heart suit and will know whether your card is high or low.

Note that if partner decides to continue hearts, she should lead low to your queen. If she instead leads the ace, declarer can ruff that and then ruff out your queen in order to set up dummy's jack.

South Deals N-S Vul	♠ K 5 3 ♥ J 10 5 3 ♦ A J 8 5 ♣ A 4
♠ Q 7 4 ♥ A K 9 8 4 ♦ 7 2 ♣ K J 3	N W E S	♠ A J 10 8 2 ♥ Q 7 2 ♦ 3 ♣ 10 9 7 6
	♠ 9 6 ♥ 6 ♦ K Q 10 9 6 4 ♣ Q 8 5 2

BONUS MINUTE: Sometimes it will be best for the defense to force a ruff in order to shorten declarer's trump holding. It's not clear from your hand whether that is the case here, or whether partner should switch to a spade per your preference. Playing the ♥ 7 leaves partner the option of continuing hearts. If you were absolutely certain that partner should switch to spades, you could play the ♥ Q. That would make it impossible for partner to continue hearts safely without giving declarer a heart trick, and make it obvious that you are demanding a spade lead. But I don't see any reason for such pyrotechnics in this hand.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Help Stupid Partner, Episode 5

"When I'm your partner, the secret to this game is to Help Stupid Partner." -- Steve B.

North Deals	♠ A Q J 5 ♥ A 10 5 4 ♦ 10 7 ♣ A J 7
♠ — ♥ J 7 ♦ A K 8 6 5 2 ♣ 10 9 4 3 2	N W E S

You	North	East	South
	1 NT	Pass	Pass
2 ♦	Dbl	Pass	2 ♥
All pass

You led the ♦ A and then the ♦ K, partner followed suit with the queen and then the jack. Declarer played the three and the four. Now what?

ANSWER: Lead the ♦ 8, signaling preference for a spade return. Partner's play shows that she is now out of diamonds. Declarer therefore still has another diamond, the nine. You are of course hoping that partner can overruff dummy.

THE PRINCIPLE: When continuing the suit is impossible, the defense is in a suit-preference situation. The diamond that you play here (high or low) indicates a preference for the higher- or lower-ranking of the other two suits outside of trump. Partner is not stupid, but she can't read your mind. She can read your signals.

If partner gets her diamond ruff and returns a spade, you will set the contract: two diamonds, a diamond ruff, a spade ruff, the king of clubs, and the king of spades. The full hand:

	♠ A Q J 5 ♥ A 10 5 4 ♦ 10 7 ♣ A J 7
♠ — ♥ J 7 ♦ A K 8 6 5 2 ♣ 10 9 4 3 2	N W E S	♠ K 8 7 6 4 ♥ Q 8 3 ♦ Q J ♣ K 8 5
	♠ 10 9 3 2 ♥ K 9 6 2 ♦ 9 4 3 ♣ Q 6

BONUS MINUTE: Declarer can always make 2 ♥ on the actual hand, but I think it would be very difficult to find the right line at the table. Your ♦ 8 signal does give declarer a clue that spades are breaking 5-0. Declarer must ruff the third diamond with the ♥ A and then lead the ♥ 10, losing only one heart trick (to West). In addition, she must avoid taking the club finesse until after drawing trumps.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Driving The Getaway Car

PARENTAL ADVISORY: This post is a bit more difficult than usual, but trust me it's worth it. We build upon an earlier post where a defender unblocked an honor to create a "get out of jail free" card. That's a hint, in case you want to refresh your memory...

South Deals N-S Vul	♠ A Q 10 5 ♥ A K ♦ Q J 10 5 4 ♣ A 10
♠ J 8 7 ♥ J 10 9 ♦ 2 ♣ J 8 6 4 3 2	N W E S

West	North	East	South
			2 ♦
Pass	2 N1	Pass	3 ♦2
Pass	4 N3	Pass	5 ♥4
Pass	6 ♦	All pass

asks for outside feature no outside A or K key-card Blackwood two keycards, no Q

Matchpoints. You are West and lead the ♥ J. Declarer plays the ace and partner follows low.

At trick two, declarer leads the ♣ A from dummy and partner plays the ♣ K (!) Declarer follows low. Your play?

Let's stop and look things over for a moment. Where is the ♠ K?
Declarer denied any outside A or K, so partner must have the ♠ K.

Is it possible that partner's ♣ K is a singleton?
Yes, possibly. But if so, then declarer has four clubs to the queen and only three cards in hearts and spades. In that case, declarer is making seven. Nothing you can do about that.

Could partner have the ♣ KQ doubleton?
Possibly, but that's bad news too. Declarer should play out the hearts and trumps first, and then you can only watch in horror while partner gets endplayed in clubs. She will have to give declarer a ruff-and-sluff in hearts, or lead into dummy's spade suit. Nothing you can do about that.

Could partner have the ♣ Kx doubleton, trying to avoid an endplay and hoping you have the ♣ Q?
Possibly. Nice try, partner, but alas you don't have the ♣ Q. Nothing you can do about that.

Could partner have ♣ KQx, trying to create an escape card with her small club?
ANSWER: Bingo!! There is something you can do about that. Play the ♣ 8, encouraging, to let partner know you have the ♣ J just in case partner has king-queen-small. If partner started with ♣ KQx, she won't know whether to play the ♣ Q next -- getting endplayed, but at least holding declarer to six -- or duck the second club hoping that you have the ♣ J and can lead spades through dummy for down one.

Partner might have started with the singleton or doubleton ♣ K. If so, your play here doesn't matter. But if partner is trying to get out of jail with a small club from ♣ KQx, you need to tell her that you will show up with the getaway car -- the ♣ J!

THE PRINCIPLE: When partner makes a play that seems unusual, think through the possible reasons for that play. There might be something that she needs to know about your hand.

	♠ A Q 10 5 ♥ A K ♦ Q J 10 5 4 ♣ A 10
♠ J 8 7 ♥ J 10 9 ♦ 2 ♣ J 8 6 4 3 2	N W E S	♠ K 9 6 2 ♥ Q 8 5 4 3 ♦ 6 ♣ K Q 5
	♠ 4 3 ♥ 7 6 2 ♦ A K 9 8 7 3 ♣ 9 7

At rubber bridge or IMP scoring, East should always duck the second round of clubs; if West doesn't have the ♣ J, the 6 ♦ contract cannot be defeated. But at matchpoints East has a more difficult choice, whether to try to defeat the contract or just prevent an overtrick. West's signal in clubs -- encouraging or discouraging with respect to the ♣ J -- will make East's decision much easier.

BONUS MINUTE: I think this hand is a great example of why bridge is such a fascinating game. Declarer sees that a potential endplay offers the best chance for success, at worst falling back on the spade finesse. East anticipates declarer's likely line of play, and plans to escape the trap. West recognizes what her partner is doing, and collaborates to ensure declarer's demise. How cool is that?!

-- Ray

Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Reading The News, Part 1

"You can observe a lot by just watching." -- Yogi Berra

In this exercise we will use the first step in Declarer's Arch to do some observing.

South Deals N-S Vul	♠ A Q 10 5 ♥ A K ♦ Q J 10 5 4 ♣ A 10
	N W E S
	♠ 4 3 ♥ 7 6 2 ♦ A K 9 8 7 3 ♣ 9 7

West	North	East	You
			2 ♦
Pass	2 NT1	Pass	3 ♦2
Pass	4 NT3	Pass	5 ♥4
Pass	6 ♦	All pass

1. asks outside feature
2. no outside A or K
3. key-card Blackwood
4. two keycards, no ♦ Q

West leads the ♥ J against your 6 ♦ contract. What can you tell about the opponents' hands? (These opponents play standard leads.)

Step 1: Analyze the lead:

It looks like the jack from jack-ten-whatever. But it could be the jack from jack-doubleton, or even the singleton jack. It could even be the jack from queen-jack doubleton. So which is it?

• Could it be a singleton jack? There are eight hearts in the opponent's hands. A 7-1 split occurs less than 3% of the time; any specific card being a singleton on your left is approximately a 0.2% chance. A singleton jack isn't worth worrying about here.
• Could it be a doubleton jack? A 6-2 split only happens 17% of the time; your left-hand opponent will hold the doubleton half of that. A doubleton jack on your left is something less than 2%; not very likely.
• So who has the ♥ Q? It's most likely that West's lead is a normal jack from jack-ten-whatever, so East most likely has the heart queen.

What about diamonds? You're only missing two small diamonds. West could have led a diamond as a passive lead, but chose not to; that's not much of a clue in this case.

Who has the spade honors? There aren't many clues about the spade suit. West knows better than to underlead a king against a slam. But if West doesn't have the ♠ K, she might have been willing to lead a spade. You denied any outside ace or king, so West doesn't have to worry about finessing her partner. Since West had a reasonable natural lead from the jack-ten of hearts, there's no reason to think she would have preferred leading from a broken spade holding. So you can't tell much about the spades.

Who has the club honors? There is a critical observation here: West did not lead the ♣ K. If West held the ♣ KQ-whatever, the king would have been a much more likely lead against a slam in a suit contract. So West probably does not have both high club honors. East almost certainly has either the ♣ K or the ♣ Q, and might have both. By the same reasoning, West probably does not have the  ♣ QJ either.

So here's what you know, not for sure but close enough:

• West has the ♥ 10
• East has the ♥ Q
• West does not have the ♣ KQ or the ♣ QJ
• East has either the ♣ K or the ♣ Q, and might have both

That is quite a lot of information from just one card, don't you think?

And now that you now that East has one of the high club honors, maybe you can endplay her with one of them.

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)

Start With The End

	♠ A Q 10 5 ♥ A K ♦ Q J 10 5 4 ♣ A 10
	N W E S
	♠ 4 3 ♥ 7 6 2 ♦ A K 9 8 7 3 ♣ 9 7

West leads the ♥ J against your 6 ♦ contract. What is your plan?

Let's go through Declarer's ARCH: Analyze. Review. Count. How?

Analyze the lead: It looks like the jack from jack-ten-whatever. This implies that East has the queen.
Review the auction: The opponents passed throughout the auction after you opened  2♦.
Count your tricks: In a suit contract, it's usually more effective to count losing tricks
 - maybe a spade loser, depending on where the ♠ K is
 - no heart losers, you can ruff your third heart in dummy
 - no diamond loser
 - one loser in clubs
How to play the hand?The club loser looks to be unavoidable. If the spade finesse works (50%), you make the contract. Is there any better way?

What if you can get East to lead spades? Or give you a ruff-and-sluff to discard a spade from your hand? Can you put East on lead with a club trick late in the hand?

If East has the ♣ KQ doubleton, she will have to win a club trick. If she has ♣ KQx or ♣ Kx and isn't paying attention, she might not unblock the king under your ace; same result, she will win the second round of clubs. And if she has ♣ KJx or ♣ QJ or ♣ QJx and West doesn't come to her rescue: same result, East will be stuck on lead. And if none of that works out and West ends up on lead, you still have a 50% chance with the spade finesse!

The effect you are trying to accomplish is called a "throw-in" play. To make it work, you need to figure out how to put East on lead, but first eliminate all other safe exits. So, here we go...

• Win the A♥. and lead the A♣ right now (I'll talk about why later on...) 
• Then draw trumps using dummy's high diamonds; save your high diamonds for later entries.
• Then K♥, and a diamond to your hand
• Ruff your last heart. Now, both your hand and dummy are out of hearts and clubs. The opponents are out of diamonds.
• Make a wish before leading dummy's last club: hope that East wins the trick! 

If East wins the club trick, either

1. she leads a spade into dummy's ♠ AQ, making six, or
2. she leads a heart or a club, you can discard a spade from your hand, making six

And if West wins the club trick, you are no worse off than you were before. West will lead a spade and you will try the spade finesse. Alas, the finesse doesn't work this time; good thing you were able to endplay East!

	♠ A Q 10 5 ♥ A K ♦ Q J 10 5 4 ♣ A 10
♠ J 8 7 ♥ J 10 ♦ 2 ♣ J 8 6 5 4 3 2	N W E S	♠ K 9 6 2 ♥ Q 9 8 5 4 3 ♦ 6 ♣ K Q
	♠ 4 3 ♥ 7 6 2 ♦ A K 9 8 7 3 ♣ 9 7

BONUS MINUTE: Declarer should play the ♣ A at trick two, just in case East and West haven't thought through the entire hand and recognized the possible need for East to escape the endplay. If declarer draws trumps and clears hearts before leading clubs, the impending endplay will be much more obvious. One more reason to always think through the hand before playing to the first trick...

-- Ray
Better Bridge in 5 Minutes. Guaranteed! (or the next one is free)