Visions of grandeur

Continuing with our monster six-five hand… matchpoints, not vulnerable.

♠ A K J x x    ♥ x x   ♦ --   ♣ A K Q J 10 x

You	Partner
1 ♣ 2 ♠ 3 ♠ 4 ♠ ?	1 ♥ 2 NT 4 ♦ 5 ♥

You showed a strong hand with six-five distribution. Partner perked up by bidding 4 ♦,  a cue-bid showing the ace of diamonds and implying support for spades. The diamond ace doesn’t do much for your hand, though. Your 4 ♠ call is ambiguous as either a sign-off or a cue-bid for the ace of spades; however partner interprets it is fine with you. Partner forges ahead, showing the heart ace with her 5 ♥ call.

Cool, we have all the aces! Partner has implied three-card spade support, and has at least two clubs for her earlier NT bid. You can count six club tricks and two red aces. If partner holds the Q♠, you can almost always rely on five spade tricks. If partner doesn’t have the Q♠, you still have a reasonable chance for four spade tricks, and even five spade tricks about a third of the time (a 3-2 split with the missing queen on your right). So, it’s your call: five, six or seven? Clubs, spades, or something else?

ANSWER:  Bid 7 ♣, though 7 ♠ is a close second choice. At this point in the auction I don’t know of a way to ask partner about the Q♠; you’ll have to just make up your mind and place the contract. If she has the queen (at least a 3/8 chance) it should be easy to make 7. If she doesn’t have the queen (at worst a 5/8 chance) you still have at least a 50-50 chance with a finesse.

THE PRINCIPLE: At matchpoints, bid a small slam (six of something) if it has at least a 50-50 chance of making. For a grand slam, you want at least a 67% chance. At IMP scoring (duplicate teams), it’s usually best to set your standards a little higher; at IMPs you avoid bidding grand slams unless you can count 13 tricks.

WHY NOT 7 ♠? My opinion goes this way: Partner denied a four-card spade holding, and promised at least two clubs. She might have three or even four clubs, giving you a nine- or ten-card club suit. The potentially better fit in clubs could help protect against a bad spade split by ruffing spade losers in dummy. Also, if you have 9 or 10 clubs between the two hands, there is an increasing chance (5% or 11%) that your right hand opponent is void in clubs; in that case, she’ll make a Lightner double to request a club lead for a ruff, down one right out of the chute. Though you could have a similar problem in the spade suit with clubs as trump, the chances of the 5-0 wrong-side spade split is only about 2%.